Recent enough to matter: Perceived temporal proximity, anxiety, and COVID-19 vaccine intent

Powell, Anna ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4879-4124, Suwalowska, Halina, Sankoh, Osman, Guo, Chunlan, Ying Yang Chang, Emily, Sekalala, Sharifah, Salisbury, Laura, Kingori, Patricia, Wilkins, Cara, After the End Team and Ogden, Ruth (2026) Recent enough to matter: Perceived temporal proximity, anxiety, and COVID-19 vaccine intent. [Data Collection]

Abstract

Background: Vaccine hesitancy undermines vaccination strategies and is shaped by non-modifiable contextual and individual/group factors, and potentially modifiable cognitive processes. The Health Belief Model (HBM) offers a framework for understanding health decision-making, including the role of threat perception, which is influenced by perceived proximity to a threat. Construal Level Theory (CLT) suggests that psychologically distant events are construed more abstractly, reducing perceived urgency. While spatial and social proximity (physical closeness and effects on one’s social network) have been widely studied, temporal proximity (nearness or distance in time) has been explored less. Given research that the pandemic affected time perception, this study examined whether perceived temporal proximity predicts future COVID-19 vaccine intent, and whether this relationship is statistically mediated by COVID-19 anxiety. Methods: A cross sectional survey assessed whether temporal proximity was associated with future vaccine intent (less vs. more likely to vaccinate) using multivariable binary logistic regression. Mediation analysis tested whether COVID-19 anxiety explained this relationship. Covariates included age, gender, direct COVID impact/risk variables, and trust in government. In total, 696 individuals were included in analyses (345 women; mean age = 47.27 ± 15.53 years). Results: Greater temporal proximity predicted greater intention to receive a future COVID-19 vaccine. There was also evidence of a significant indirect association via COVID 19 anxiety: greater perceived proximity was associated with higher anxiety, and higher anxiety was associated with greater vaccination intent. Significant covariates included perceived vulnerability to COVID-19, and trust in government. Conclusions: Findings support evidence that proximity influences threat perception and behavioural intentions, demonstrating that temporal proximity functions similarly in a real-world preventative healthcare context. The observed indirect association via anxiety, considered alongside the HBM and CLT, is discussed as a possible mechanism underlying the proximity-intention link. Longitudinal research is needed to assess causality and inform communication strategies using temporal framing.

Additional Information:	Depositing user's licence comment: This research was funded in whole or in part by The Wellcome Trust, 225238/Z/22/Z. For the purpose of Open Access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript (AAM) version arising from this submission.
Creators:	Powell, Anna ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4879-4124, Suwalowska, Halina, Sankoh, Osman, Guo, Chunlan, Ying Yang Chang, Emily, Sekalala, Sharifah, Salisbury, Laura, Kingori, Patricia, Wilkins, Cara, After the End Team and Ogden, Ruth
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19; Coronavirus; Vaccine Hesitancy; Threat Perception; Temporal Proximity; 520304 Health psychology
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.24377/LJMU.d.00000275
Division:	Psychology (new Sep 2019)
Field of Research:	Psychology > Clinical and health psychology > Health psychology
Date Deposited:	21 May 2026 08:36
Last Modified:	21 May 2026 08:36
URI:	https://opendata.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/275
Data collection method:	Data were collected as part of the After the End project, which investigates lived experiences in the aftermath of diseases, disasters, and other global health crises once they are officially declared to be ‘over’. A cross-sectional, correlational design was used to assess factors associated with vaccine intent, which was analysed as a binary outcome: being less or more likely to have a COVID-19 vaccine in the future. The primary independent variable was perceived temporal proximity. Covariates included age, gender, direct COVID impact/risk variables (having long-COVID, having a health condition perceived as increasing vulnerability to COVID-19, or being a carer for someone vulnerable), and trust in government. Participants were adult UK residents recruited through Prolific.com, an online research platform where individuals opt in to take part in studies. Recruitment used Prolific’s “Representative Sample” feature, which applies census matched quota sampling to ensure that the sample reflects UK population distributions for age, gender, and ethnicity. Because Prolific distributes studies directly to eligible users, a conventional response rate was not calculated. The questionnaire was available for one day, on 8 March 2025, with no reminders issued.
Grant number:	225238/Z/22/Z
Resource language:	English
Metadata language:	English
Collection period:	From To 8 March 2025 8 March 2025